申通快递：Q3业绩高增，市占率稳步提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 33.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 652 million yuan, up 195.18%, with Q3 net profit soaring to 215 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 7760.86% [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 33.49 billion yuan, a 14.16% increase year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 11.92 billion yuan, growing by 16.31% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 652 million yuan, marking a 195.18% increase, while Q3 net profit reached 215 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 7760.86% [2][6] Market Position - The company completed a total express delivery volume of 16.11 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.8%. The market share increased to 13.02%, up by 0.87 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company handled 5.88 billion pieces, a 27.9% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 13.49%, up 0.39 percentage points from Q2 2024 [6] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced costs, with the cost per express delivery piece in Q3 2024 at 1.91 yuan, a decrease of approximately 7% year-on-year. The net profit per piece was 0.04 yuan, an increase of 0.04 yuan year-on-year. The cash flow situation improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.698 billion yuan for the first nine months, a 40.26% increase [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 48.31 billion yuan, 56.01 billion yuan, and 64.05 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.05%, 15.94%, and 14.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 915 million yuan, 1.246 billion yuan, and 1.526 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 168.55%, 36.16%, and 22.46% respectively [7][8]