社服行业周报：国内消费逐步向好

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [3][25]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic tourism consumption has shown significant recovery in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic travel volume reaching 4.237 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2][9]. - Total domestic tourism expenditure for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [2][9]. - The average expenditure per trip was 1,026.7 yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking - The social service industry index rose by 4.43% in the week of October 21-25, ranking 8th among all first-level industries [7]. - Sub-industry performance included hotel and catering at 4.83%, tourism and scenic spots at 5.03%, education at 4.01%, and professional services at 3.87% [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1. Recovery of Domestic Tourism Consumption - In the first three quarters of 2024, urban residents accounted for 3.270 billion trips, while rural residents made 0.967 billion trips, with growth rates of 14.9% and 16.8% respectively [9]. - Urban residents' total tourism expenditure was 3.71 trillion yuan, growing by 17.1%, while rural residents spent 0.64 trillion yuan, increasing by 22.5% [9]. - Quarterly breakdown showed Q1 with 1.419 billion trips and 1.52 trillion yuan in expenditure, Q2 with 1.306 billion trips and 1.21 trillion yuan, and Q3 with 1.512 billion trips and 1.62 trillion yuan [10][12]. 2.2. Improvement in September Retail Data - National retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [13]. - Retail sales of goods increased by 3.3%, while catering revenue rose by 3.1% [13]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Domestic business travel orders increased by 20.72% year-on-year in Q3, indicating a recovery in corporate travel demand [21]. - The civil aviation sector is expanding its international routes, particularly to North America, while domestic flight volumes remain stable [22]. - Thailand's tourism department forecasts 36 million foreign visitors in 2024, indicating ongoing recovery in the tourism sector [23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLai Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and others due to the positive outlook on domestic consumption and tourism [25][26].