9月财政收支、企业利润与10月PMI分析：财政政策已经发力即将加力

Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has begun to take effect, with infrastructure investment growth rising from 6.7% in May to 9.3% in September[11] - The balance of local government special bonds has increased year-on-year from 13.7% in April to 16.4% in September[11] - The public finance account deficit as a percentage of current GDP has widened from -3.03% in Q1 2024 to -4.08% in Q3 2024[11] Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal revenue turned positive in September after six months of negative growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.45%[14] - Cumulative public fiscal expenditure from January to September showed a positive growth of 2.0%, while revenue and government fund income remained negative[14] - Government fund income decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income down by 24.6%[15] Industrial Performance - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant decline in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%[30] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises turned negative at -3.5% for the first nine months of 2024[30] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been negative for 24 consecutive months, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[30] PMI Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for October increased to 50.1%, indicating a recovery in both supply and demand[33] - The production index rose to 52.0%, while the new orders index returned to 50.0%, suggesting stabilization in manufacturing activity[33] - Purchase price index jumped from 45.1% in September to 53.4% in October, although still below the critical threshold[33]