中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】医药祝嘉琦：业绩真空期，寻找2025年基本面改善的方向-——医药生物11月月报暨三季报总结-20241106

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 4.3% in October 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 3.2%, ranking 28th among 31 sub-industries [2][3] - The report highlights a significant drop in fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with the top ten A-share funds holding a 9.69% share in Q3 2024, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3] - The report suggests that the market will focus on investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector as short-term pressures ease, particularly looking towards 2025 for potential improvements in fundamentals [2][3] October Review - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was characterized by volatility, with a nearly 40% increase in late September followed by a decline post-National Day [2][3] - Sub-sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and traditional Chinese medicine saw declines of 2.67%, 3.68%, and 4.48% respectively in October [2][3] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low in terms of fund holdings, suggesting potential for recovery as market sentiment shifts [2][3] Q3 2024 Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024, pharmaceutical companies reported a 0.3% decline in revenue and a 7.4% drop in total profit, with a 4.6% decrease in net profit excluding non-recurring items [2][3] - Q3 2024 saw a 0.5% increase in revenue, but total profit fell by 13.0%, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability despite some stabilization in revenue [2][3] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical industry has faced challenges due to regulatory actions, difficulties in new product admissions, and macroeconomic pressures affecting both hospital and outpatient services [2][3] Sector Performance - Among the sub-sectors, chemical preparations and raw materials showed positive performance, with revenue growth rates of 4.46% and 3.46% respectively for Q1-Q3 2024 [3] - The report ranks the performance of various sub-sectors, with chemical preparations leading in net profit growth at 48.97%, while biological products faced a significant decline of 34.28% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining market share and operational efficiency in a challenging environment, highlighting the need for companies to focus on revenue stability [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as innovative drugs and the GLP-1 sector, with specific companies like Kangfang Biotech and Aier Eye Hospital recommended for investment [2][3] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in companies that can identify turning points in their performance, particularly in the raw materials and CRO/CDMO sectors [2][3] - The report advises investors to consider companies with strong earnings prospects, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine and blood products, as potential investment opportunities [2][3]