钢铁行业周报：关注宏观刺激与钢铁供给收缩政策进展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, with specific companies recommended for investment including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hebei Resources, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin Co. [2][5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies in China are showing a clear shift, which is expected to support steel prices. The report anticipates that the prices of black commodities will have limited downside risk due to these macro factors, and as fiscal policies are implemented, steel prices are likely to rise, making it difficult for them to fall. [2][5] - The report notes that the current profitability of the steel industry is at a low point, and with the combination of macroeconomic stimulus and supply-side contraction, there is significant upward potential for the sector's performance. [2][5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The steel sector saw a rise of 4.65%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.49 percentage points [8]. - The average price of rebar in major cities was reported as follows: Shanghai at 3,544 CNY/ton, Guangzhou at 3,756 CNY/ton, and Beijing at 3,580 CNY/ton, with weekly changes noted [9]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Steel Price and Inventory Trends - National steel prices have rebounded overall, while iron ore inventories have increased. The average iron ore inventory at 45 ports rose, indicating a supply-side adjustment [11]. - The report indicates that the average daily pig iron production was 235.47 million tons, with a slight decrease noted [1]. 2.2 Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased to 82.44%, with a total production of 867.3 million tons of major steel products, reflecting a decrease of 13.3 million tons week-on-week [3][20]. - The report also highlights that the demand for construction steel remains stable, with an average transaction volume of 116,700 tons [22]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1 Key Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported a 0.9% year-on-year increase in new housing contract signings in October, marking the first growth after 15 months of decline [24]. - Major steel companies have announced maintenance schedules, impacting production levels temporarily [24]. 3.2 Company Announcements - Baotou Steel reported a total revenue of 14.657 billion CNY for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.57%, with a net profit loss of 625 million CNY [25]. - Xining Special Steel reported a revenue of 1.419 billion CNY for Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 101.67% [26].