煤炭行业周报：淡季煤价稳中偏弱，关注财政政策力度

Investment Ratings - Shaanxi Coal Industry: Buy [1] - China Shenhua: Overweight [1] - Yancoal Energy: Overweight [1] - Huaibei Mining: Overweight [1] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: Overweight [1] - Jinkong Coal Industry: Overweight [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal: Overweight [1] - Electric Power Investment Energy: Overweight [1] - Huayang Co., Ltd.: Overweight [1] - Pingmei Shenma Group: Overweight [1] - China Coal Energy: Overweight [1] - Shanxi Coal International: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with thermal coal prices stabilizing in a weak manner during the off-season, while attention is drawn to the strength of fiscal policies [2][3] - As of November 1, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 860 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3 CNY/ton week-on-week; the long-term contract price for November 2024 was 699 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0% year-on-year [2][6] - The total coal production in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions reached 28.04 million tons for the week ending October 27, an increase of 170,000 tons week-on-week [20] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port price of thermal coal decreased slightly, with daily consumption maintaining levels similar to previous years [2][6] - The inventory at northern ports increased to 25.28 million tons, up 1.14 million tons week-on-week [8] - Coastal provinces' terminal user inventory was 34.39 million tons, down 644,000 tons week-on-week, with a usable days increase to 19.0 days [8][9] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are stable but slightly weak, with the price for Shanxi coking coal at 1,760 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [21][24] - The coke price index was 1,715 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the cost index was 1,829 CNY/ton, down 27 CNY/ton [24] 3. Downstream Changes - Steel prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with independent coking plants' inventory levels being monitored [25] 4. Futures Market - The price gap between coking coal and coke futures has narrowed, indicating market adjustments [29] 5. Transportation - The transportation costs for coal are on the rise, with both sea and land freight rates increasing [30]