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银行行业周报:Q3上市银行营收由负转正,国有大行息差表现最佳
Haitong Securities·2024-11-06 11:03

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the overall revenue growth of listed banks has turned positive in Q3, with a 0.89% year-on-year increase, marking a recovery from negative growth since Q1 2024. The net profit growth for the parent company increased by 2.1 percentage points compared to Q2 [5][6]. - The report suggests that net interest margins are under short-term pressure but are expected to stabilize, with revenue growth gradually stabilizing and profit growth maintaining current levels. Non-performing loan ratios remain low, and provision coverage ratios are high [5][6]. - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, Suzhou Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, based on their asset quality and growth potential [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance Review - From October 25 to November 1, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.13 percentage points. Among the categories, state-owned banks fell by 0.80%, while joint-stock banks dropped by 2.62% [8][12]. - Individual stock performance showed notable increases for Changsha Bank (4.45%), Qilu Bank (4.22%), and Chongqing Bank (3.79%), while Suzhou Bank (-4.16%), Postal Savings Bank (-4.19%), and Industrial Bank (-4.44%) saw significant declines [8][12]. 2. Financial Results of Major Banks - As of October 30, major banks reported their Q3 results, with China Bank achieving a revenue of 479.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.74%, and a net profit of 187.5 billion yuan, up 0.53% [9][10]. - Agricultural Bank reported a revenue of 540.21 billion yuan, a 1.29% increase, and a net profit of 215.26 billion yuan, up 3.60% [9][10]. - Industrial Bank's revenue was 626.42 billion yuan, down 3.82%, with a net profit of 270.48 billion yuan, up 0.20% [9][10]. 3. Valuation Situation - As of November 1, the banking sector's 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.61, with state-owned banks at 0.61, joint-stock banks at 0.63, city commercial banks at 0.55, and rural commercial banks at 0.54 [19][20]. 4. Recent Market Interest Rate Review - On November 1, the yield on AAA-rated 3-month interbank certificates of deposit decreased by 3 basis points compared to the previous week [21].