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特步国际:流水稳健增长,库存&折扣健康

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in revenue, with the main brand showing a single-digit year-on-year increase, while the Saucony brand experienced over 50% growth. The revenue performance aligns with expectations [3]. - Inventory levels remain healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months, consistent with the previous quarter. The discount level is at 75%, which is considered healthy, indicating that the overall discount and inventory levels are leading the industry [4]. - Looking ahead, the company is expected to perform well in Q4 with a favorable consumption trend in October, and the professional sports brand Saucony is anticipated to continue its high growth, contributing positively to performance. Despite short-term consumer pressure, the separation of KP is expected to enhance earnings [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Data - The company released its Q3 retail data, indicating that the main brand's revenue grew in single digits year-on-year, while Saucony's revenue grew by over 50%, meeting expectations [3]. Inventory and Discounts - The inventory remains healthy with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4 months, and the discount level is at 75%, which is considered a healthy benchmark in the industry [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.275 billion, 1.462 billion, and 1.620 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 15%, and 11%. The current price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times for the respective years [4][6].