Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant performance in Q3, with its subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao achieving a revenue of 110.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.75 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 141.43% [2] - The price of alumina has shown continuous high growth, with an average price of 3,650.5 RMB/ton in the first three quarters of 2024, up 26.28% year-on-year, and reaching 5,118 RMB/ton by November 4, 2024, indicating a robust demand and tight supply [2] - The stable aluminum prices combined with cost optimization have led to continuous profit growth, with the average price of aluminum in the first three quarters being 19,700 RMB/ton, a 6.01% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 19.755 billion RMB, 21.125 billion RMB, and 22.606 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5.8, 5.4, and 5.1 [2][3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 133.624 billion RMB in 2023 to 146.864 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 12.42% in 2023 to 17.63% in 2024 [3][6] Cash Flow and Investment - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from 22.402 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.844 billion RMB in 2024 [4] - The company plans to relocate part of its aluminum electrolysis capacity to Yunnan, establishing a green aluminum innovation industrial park and lightweight materials base [2] Key Financial Ratios - The gross profit margin is projected to rise from 15.68% in 2023 to 23.39% in 2024 [6] - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 8.58% in 2023 to 13.45% in 2024 [6] - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 46.96% in 2023 to 40.82% in 2026, indicating improved financial stability [6]
中国宏桥：一体化优势凸显，Q3延续高景气