亚士创能：Q3涂料板块业绩承压，防水板块增长亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.25 CNY, reflecting a 2.5x PB for 2024 [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows significant pressure in the coatings segment, with a notable decline in revenue and profit, while the waterproof segment demonstrates strong growth [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters is 23.15%, down 9.29 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [3]. - The report highlights potential catalysts from real estate policies that could enhance market share through channel transformation and risk management [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3, the company reported a net profit of 0.01 million CNY, a 98.72% decrease year-on-year, with total revenue of 6.82 million CNY, down 24.39% [1]. - The first three quarters saw total revenue of 17.24 million CNY, a decline of 27.79% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.19 million CNY [1]. - The waterproof materials segment achieved a revenue increase of 40.3% year-on-year, contrasting with declines in the coatings segment [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 23.20%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.75 percentage points [3]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio improved to 74.94%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a more optimized capital structure [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.49 billion CNY, 1.44 billion CNY, and 1.82 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to decline to 2.78 billion CNY in 2024, with a subsequent recovery projected in 2025 and 2026 [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that the industry remains fragmented, providing opportunities for the company to increase its market share through strategic channel changes and effective risk management [4]. - The anticipated recovery in the real estate sector, particularly from urban renewal projects, is expected to drive demand in the medium to long term [2].