宏观专题研究：美国大选落定，后续怎么看？

Election Outcome - Trump's victory aligns with market expectations, securing over half of the electoral votes, particularly in key swing states[2] - The Republican Party is likely to control both the Senate and the House, exceeding market expectations, which may facilitate Trump's policy implementation[2][3] - Trump's win over Harris is attributed to both short-term and deeper factors, including Harris's low recognition and recent domestic disasters impacting the Democratic Party[2][3] Market Impact - Long-term benefits for U.S. stocks are anticipated, similar to the 2017 tax cuts that supported corporate earnings[3] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise due to potential inflation pressures from tariffs and immigration restrictions, making it difficult for rates to decline[3][29] - The dollar is likely to strengthen due to fiscal stimulus, although Trump's emphasis on devaluing the dollar for export benefits is viewed with skepticism[3][29] Domestic Policy Implications - Trump's election may lead to increased tariffs, impacting domestic export chains, though China's share of U.S. imports has decreased significantly since 2018[4][35][37] - The potential for heightened domestic counter-cyclical policies is expected in response to increased tariff pressures and policy unpredictability[4][35] Risks - Risks include unexpected developments in the U.S. election, geopolitical tensions exceeding expectations, and the historical context not guaranteeing future outcomes[4]