轻工制造行业周观点：三季报披露完毕，家居造纸整体承压，出口个护表现分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home furnishing and paper manufacturing sectors, with specific recommendations to "Increase" positions in key companies such as Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and Sun Paper [1][2]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing pressure on performance due to a weakening industry environment, but there are signs of recovery driven by favorable policies and a stabilization in the real estate market, with expectations for marginal improvement in Q4 2024 [2]. - The paper manufacturing sector is facing profit pressure due to high pulp prices, but a seasonal recovery in paper prices is anticipated in Q4 2024, which may improve overall profitability [3]. - The export sector shows varied performance, with some leading companies still achieving excess profits despite challenges from currency fluctuations and declining overseas demand [4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Q3 performance was generally under pressure, with companies facing intense competition and limited improvement in earnings despite cost-cutting efforts [2]. - The new housing supply in 30 key cities fell by nearly 40% in October, but transactions showed a U-shaped recovery, with a 44% month-on-month increase in October [2]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands in customized furniture and soft furnishings, such as Oppein Home and Kuka Home [2]. Paper Manufacturing Sector - Q3 saw paper prices under pressure while pulp prices remained high, leading to significant profit pressure, with revenue growth primarily from new capacity [3]. - Price increases for various paper products were announced, with cultural paper and white card paper seeing price hikes of 200-300 yuan per ton [3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the paper sector, particularly Sun Paper [3]. Export Sector - Q3 performance varied significantly, with overall profits under pressure due to exchange rates and shipping costs, but some niche leaders like Jiayi Co. and Craft Home still managed to achieve excess profits [4]. - The upcoming U.S. election results are expected to influence market sentiment and stock prices in the export sector [4]. Other Sectors - The personal care sector continues to see performance differentiation among companies, with a focus on enhancing online channel strategies [4].