锑：出口管制放松内外盘锑价有望收敛，国内锑价或迎二次上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The relaxation of export controls on antimony is expected to lead to a convergence of domestic and international antimony prices, with a potential second price increase in the domestic market [2][4] - Antimony prices have been on a continuous rise due to a shortage of antimony concentrate and environmental restrictions in major production areas, with domestic antimony ingot prices increasing by 75% from 90,000 CNY/ton to 157,000 CNY/ton between April 1 and August 15 [3] - The international antimony price has reached a historical high, with U.S. antimony ingot prices rising by 49% from 177,000 CNY/ton to 264,000 CNY/ton during the same period [3] Summary by Sections Export Control and Price Dynamics - The issuance of export licenses indicates a potential easing of export controls, which may alleviate pressure on domestic spot prices and gradually narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets [4] - Historically, China has been a major supplier and exporter of antimony, with domestic prices typically lower than international prices due to sufficient supply and shipping costs [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of antimony is rigid, with global antimony reserves and production reported at 200,000/83,000 metric tons, resulting in a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 24 [5] - Demand for antimony is primarily driven by flame retardants and photovoltaic glass, accounting for 46% and 24% of total demand, respectively [5] - Despite a recent decline in photovoltaic glass production, demand is expected to stabilize, contributing to long-term growth in antimony demand [5] Future Outlook - With the relaxation of export controls and a favorable supply-demand balance, domestic antimony prices are anticipated to rise [5] - Companies to watch include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [5]