中国神华：自产煤成本下滑&发电增速亮眼，Q3业绩优异

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua [5][9] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue of 253.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.57%, and a net profit of 46.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.55% year-on-year [1] - The coal production cost has significantly decreased, and the power generation growth is impressive, indicating a robust operational performance [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth and high dividend levels, reinforcing its position as a leading player in the coal industry [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 85.8 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.37% and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The net profit for the same quarter was 16.57 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [1] - The total coal production for Q1-Q3 2024 was 244.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with Q3 production at 81.2 million tons, showing a slight decrease [2] Cost and Profitability - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2024 was 580 yuan per ton, with a cost of 399 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 181 yuan per ton, which is a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The cost of self-produced coal for Q1-Q3 2024 was 186.3 yuan per ton, down by 5.4 yuan compared to the first half of the year [2] Power Generation - The power generation volume for Q1-Q3 2024 was 168 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with Q3 generation at 64 billion kWh, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 14.4% [3] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q3 2024 was 431 yuan per MWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 344.3 billion, 356.4 billion, and 360.1 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 59.7 billion, 61.5 billion, and 62.6 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.6 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [4]