“特朗普2.0时代”：为何东山再起？对中国的影响及应对

Group 1: Trump's Comeback - Trump's return to power in 2024 marks a unique political phenomenon, being only the second U.S. president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland[7] - The outcome of recent elections has been heavily influenced by five swing states, which collectively hold over 70 electoral votes, crucial for presidential victories[9] - Voter dissatisfaction with the status quo has driven shifts in swing state allegiances, with inflation and immigration becoming key issues in the 2024 election[10] Group 2: Impact on China - Trump's "2.0" era is expected to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports, with a proposed 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, potentially reducing China's GDP by 0.85% by 2025[14] - The U.S. may further restrict China's access to high-tech sectors, including semiconductors and AI, exacerbating existing trade tensions[20] - The anticipated policies could lead to depreciation of the RMB and pressure on A-shares, similar to the 8.47% depreciation seen during the last trade conflict in 2018[23] Group 3: China's Response Strategies - China should enhance internal policy certainty and reform to mitigate external shocks, focusing on fiscal and monetary measures to stimulate domestic demand[30] - Structural reforms are necessary to improve income distribution and support the middle and lower-income groups, thereby boosting consumption[31] - Expanding trade partnerships, particularly with Belt and Road Initiative countries, can help offset the impact of U.S. tariffs and maintain export competitiveness[33]