资产配置与比较月报（2024年11月）：分化中寻找确定性

Investment Outlook - The report highlights a positive shift in domestic expectations due to the rapid implementation of a series of policies, including a 25bps reduction in LPR and increased credit support for the real estate sector, which has led to a noticeable narrowing of the decline in property sales [3][29][30] - The focus is on the verification of domestic fundamentals and the scale of local government debt, which are crucial for market sentiment and pricing factors in the A-share market [4][30] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the FOMC meeting in November may create short-term disturbances in global capital markets, with potential impacts on exports and domestic monetary policy [4][30] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by local government debt dynamics, but with sufficient market expectations already priced in [4][30] Sector Analysis Consumer Sector - In the food and beverage industry, Kweichow Moutai reported a steady performance with a revenue increase of 16.95% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, indicating strong growth potential in the high-end liquor segment [39] - The beer sector is expected to benefit from cost reductions and a potential recovery in on-premise consumption, with Qingdao Beer identified as a key player [40] Renewable Energy - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see a recovery in fundamentals, driven by policy support and supply-side reforms, with leading companies like Trina Solar and LONGi Green Energy expected to benefit from improved pricing and market conditions [51][52] Agriculture and Livestock - The livestock sector is projected to stabilize with pig prices expected to recover in Q4, supported by improving demand and declining inventory levels [43][45] - The pet food market has shown significant growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating strong consumer interest and market potential [44] Healthcare - The healthcare sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with leading companies in the cosmetics and medical aesthetics segments facing varying degrees of pressure, while emerging segments like collagen products are showing growth [47][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the beverage sector, as well as companies with strong growth potential in the consumer goods and renewable energy sectors [42][51]