中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：详解基金3Q24银行持仓：被动和北向资金加仓较多-20241107

Core Insights - The report highlights that passive and northbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector during Q3 2024, with passive funds surpassing northbound funds for the first time, becoming the dominant pricing power in the market [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Bank Stock Holdings Changes - Passive funds accounted for a substantial portion of the inflow, with inflows of 620.99 million, while active and northbound funds had inflows of 13.87 million and 135.07 million respectively, representing 4.83%, 0.11%, and 1.05% of the total trading volume in Q3 [2] - The proportion of institutional holdings in bank stocks, ranked from highest to lowest, is as follows: passive funds (1.94%) > northbound funds (1.91%) > active funds (0.52%) [2] Active Funds - Active funds increased their holdings in bank stocks, with a rise of 0.09 percentage points to 2.93%, marking three consecutive quarters of increases, and a narrowing low allocation gap of 8.70% compared to Q2 [2] - Notable increases in holdings were observed in quality city and rural commercial banks, with Jiangsu, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Chongqing showing increases of 0.76, 0.33, 0.30, and 0.27 percentage points respectively [2] - Major net inflows into active funds were recorded for Jiangsu, Bank of China, and Ningbo, with inflows of 10.99 million, 9.11 million, and 4.14 million respectively [2] Passive Funds - Passive funds significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector, with total holdings reaching 1671.7 million, a 59.1% increase from Q2, representing 1.94% of the total market capitalization of listed banks [2] - The growth in passive fund holdings was driven by a substantial increase in ETF sizes, with a total growth of 1.03 trillion, including a 456.1 billion increase in the CSI 300 index, leading to significant inflows into banks with high weights in this index, such as Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and major state-owned banks [2] - The largest inflows in Q3 2024 were seen in China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Bank of Communications, and Agricultural Bank, with inflows of 122.97 million, 73.34 million, 55.81 million, 43.37 million, and 40.50 million respectively [2] Northbound Funds - Northbound funds continued to increase their holdings in the banking sector, with total holdings reaching 1646.4 million, a 7.34% increase from Q2 [2] - The proportion of northbound funds in the total market capitalization of listed banks decreased slightly by 4 basis points to 1.91% [2] - Major inflows from northbound funds were observed in China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, ICBC, and Pudong Development Bank, with inflows of 27.25 million, 16.05 million, 15.58 million, and 15.49 million respectively [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality city and rural commercial banks with debt repayment benefits, particularly those with strong fundamentals and low valuations [2] - If economic expectations continue to improve, core assets within the banking sector are recommended [2] - In a scenario of weak economic recovery with debt repayment benefits, high dividend yield stocks, particularly large banks, are advised [2]