商业贸易行业：新质生产力+服务消费，开辟更多增量空间

Industry Overview - The sector has underperformed the broader market since the beginning of the year, with significant divergence among sub-sectors [3] - Travel demand remains strong, with scenic spots and OTAs showing better performance [3] - New business models and channels are driving transformation in traditional industries [3] - Cost-effective and interest-driven consumption trends continue [3] - AI applications are rapidly penetrating the industry [4] Industry Review - From the beginning of the year to October 29th, the Shenwan Social Services and Shenwan Retail sectors fell by 3.1% and 1.4% respectively, underperforming the CSI 300 [12] - Professional chains, tourism complexes, supermarkets, and natural scenic spots achieved positive returns [12] - OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel performed well in Hong Kong, benefiting from the increasing online penetration of post-pandemic tourism [12] - Domestic tourism during holidays in 2023 remained high, exceeding 2019 levels, but per capita spending during holidays in 2024 has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels [14] - Non-holiday travel demand has rebounded, with civil aviation passenger traffic in 2024 mostly exceeding 2023 levels [14] - Natural scenic spots with strong resource endowments saw significant visitor growth, with Jiuhua Mountain and Changbai Mountain experiencing year-on-year increases of 15% and 48% respectively [16] - OTA platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel saw revenue growth of 21% and 49% respectively in the first half of 2024, driven by increased online penetration and the popularity of tourism in lower-tier cities [18] - Hotel occupancy rates have not yet recovered to 2019 levels, with Huazhu showing better recovery rates compared to Jinjiang and BTG [20] Industry Outlook - Consumption promotion policies are expected to continue, with a focus on boosting domestic demand through service consumption [6] - The "price power" advantage will be strengthened, with attention on the expansion of new business models and profit margin improvements [6] - Quality and interest-driven consumption will be key, with offline retail expected to reach a turning point [6] - AI applications will catalyze industry growth, with significant penetration in trade, education, and exhibition sectors [89] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main investment themes: cost-effective retail and services, outbound chains, and scenic tourism [6] - Key beneficiaries include companies like Tuhu, Miniso, Haidilao, and Ctrip [6] - Outbound chains are expected to remain highly prosperous, with companies like Mio Exhibition and Anker Innovation benefiting from strong export demand [163] - Scenic tourism will benefit from improved transportation and project upgrades, with companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain expected to see increased visitor numbers [163] Company Highlights - Miniso: The company has over 7,000 global stores, with a focus on cost-effective and interest-driven products. It plans to double its store network by 2028 and achieve a revenue CAGR of at least 20% [165] - Tuhu: The company has a strong position in the IAM market, with significant growth potential in market share and chain rate. Its proprietary and exclusive brands contribute to higher profit margins [168] - Mio Exhibition: The company saw a 42.29% increase in revenue and a 395.58% increase in net profit in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for overseas exhibitions [170] - Small Commodities City: The company plans to invest 8.3 billion yuan to build a global digital trade center, aiming to transform into a comprehensive international trade service provider [175] - Focus Technology: The company's AI product, AI Mike, has seen steady growth, with 4,641 paying members as of March 2024 [176] - Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel: Both companies have seen strong recovery in revenue, driven by increased online penetration and the popularity of tourism in lower-tier markets [177][178] - Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain: These companies are expected to benefit from improved transportation and new projects, with Jiuhua Mountain seeing a 13% and 16% increase in visitors in July and August 2024 respectively [180] - Haidilao and Yum China: Both companies are focusing on expanding their store networks and improving operational efficiency, with Haidilao opening its first camping hotpot and campus hotpot stores in 2023 [219][220]