【NIFD季报】BIS杠杆率数据向我方趋同 宏观经济治理思路呈现创新——2024年三季度中国杠杆率报告

Macro Leverage Overview - The macro leverage ratio increased by 2.5 percentage points in Q3 2024, rising from 295.6% at the end of Q2 to 298.1% [2][5] - The total macro leverage ratio rose by 10.1 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2024, with non-financial corporate leverage increasing by 6.2 percentage points and government leverage by 4.2 percentage points, while household leverage decreased by 0.3 percentage points [5][7] - The nominal GDP growth rate remained low, with actual GDP growing by 4.6% year-on-year in Q3, while nominal GDP grew by only 4.0%, leading to a passive rise in the macro leverage ratio [9] Household Sector Leverage - Household leverage decreased by 0.3 percentage points in Q3 2024, dropping from 63.5% at the end of Q2 to 63.2% [5][14] - Residential mortgage loans have been declining for six consecutive quarters, with total household loan growth slowing to 3.0% in Q3 2024 [14][17] - Household savings increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with per capita disposable income reaching 30,941 yuan, a 5.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [20][21] Non-Financial Corporate Sector Leverage - Non-financial corporate leverage increased by 0.3 percentage points in Q3 2024, rising from 174.3% at the end of Q2 to 174.6% [5][26] - Corporate debt growth slowed to 7.3% year-on-year in Q3, with corporate loan growth falling to 9.9%, below the 10% threshold [26][30] - Fixed asset investment growth declined to 3.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with real estate investment falling by 10.1% [35][37] Government Sector Leverage - Government leverage increased by 2.5 percentage points in Q3 2024, rising from 57.8% at the end of Q2 to 60.3% [5][39] - Central government leverage increased by 1.2 percentage points, while local government leverage rose by 1.3 percentage points in Q3 [39] - The fiscal deficit rate in 2023 reached 3.87%, the highest in nearly two decades, but still significantly lower than that of the US and Japan, indicating room for further fiscal expansion [49] Financial Sector Leverage - The asset-side financial leverage ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points in Q3 2024, while the liability-side ratio rose by 2.2 percentage points [42] - Bank-to-non-bank lending as a percentage of total assets declined, indicating an improvement in banks' ability to serve the real economy [44] Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery - Fiscal policy has shown a pro-cyclical trend, with fiscal expenditure growth significantly lower than nominal GDP growth, weakening its role in economic stabilization [46] - International comparisons suggest that China's fiscal policy has significant room for expansion, with the fiscal deficit rate remaining below that of major developed economies [48] - The government's pro-cyclical behavior has hindered private sector balance sheet repair, with private sector credit expansion remaining weak [50]