宏观大类专题报告：美国大选影响联合解读

Macro Insights - The 2024 U.S. presidential election results indicate Trump secured 280 electoral votes, while Harris received 226, suggesting a Republican-controlled government[11] - Trump's policies focus on tax increases on imports, tax cuts domestically, and a push for manufacturing to return to the U.S., which may lead to inflationary pressures[18] - The anticipated impact of Trump's election includes a strong dollar and potential increases in tariffs, which could affect trade dynamics significantly[18] Financial Market Impacts - A short-term market reaction to Trump's election may see A-shares experience a maximum pressure of 6% due to tariff implications, but a rebound is expected as domestic policies stabilize[3][28] - The U.S. dollar index has risen over 4% since September, indicating a strengthening dollar that could pressure the Chinese yuan[33] - The stock market may face volatility, but sectors with strong earnings support, like IH, are expected to perform well in the near term[3][28] Commodity Sector Effects - Trump's policies are likely to impose a 10% baseline tariff on global goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, impacting the black and colored metals sectors significantly[40] - The energy sector's response to Trump's election is complex, with potential for both upward and downward pressures depending on policy prioritization[4] - The overall commodity market may see price fluctuations due to the anticipated inflationary environment and changes in trade policies[24]