11月大类资产配置报告：政策持续落地 A股迎来投资机遇

Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals are expected to improve in the short term, with consumption stimulus policies likely to enhance Q4 consumption data[2] - The current fiscal policy focuses on local government debt reduction, alleviating fiscal pressure and creating space for economic development[2] - The finance minister has indicated a faster pace of bond issuance, aiming to quickly generate tangible work output, making a GDP rebound in Q4 a high probability event[2] Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by a strong oscillation without sustained downward pressure[3] - Market confidence is recovering, with active participation and a favorable rotation among sectors, particularly in restructuring and technology[3] - The upcoming U.S. election results may introduce volatility, but the overall strong oscillation pattern of the index is expected to remain unchanged[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with low interest rates required to stabilize confidence and address insufficient demand[4] - The expected core yield range for 10Y and 30Y government bonds is approximately 2.10%-2.20% and 2.25%-2.35%, respectively[4] U.S. Market Perspective - The U.S. economy is not expected to face significant recession risks in the near term, with traditional consumption peaks in Q3 and Q4[5] - The U.S. stock market is showing strong performance, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 5% and 8% respectively in recent months[5] Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices are expected to rise due to structural supply constraints, while copper consumption is projected to increase as financing conditions improve[5] - The report suggests a cautious yet optimistic view on A-shares, with a recommendation to overweight A-shares and maintain a watchful stance on commodities like gold and copper[5]