郁观海外系列之五：特朗普归来，哪些政策可能落地

Policy Implementation Challenges - Trump's ability to implement policies depends on congressional cooperation, with trade, foreign affairs, and environmental policies being easier to enact than tax cuts and immigration reform, which require new legislation[2][17]. - Executive orders can be issued without congressional approval, but they may face judicial challenges if deemed unconstitutional[3][18]. - Budget reconciliation allows for fiscal legislation to pass with a simple majority in the Senate, but it must comply with the "Byrd Rule," which prohibits increasing the deficit beyond ten years[4][22][23]. Historical Context - After Trump's 2016 election, many of his campaign promises were successfully implemented, such as tax cuts and withdrawal from international agreements, but some legislative initiatives faced significant obstacles[6][27]. - The Republican Party's control of both houses of Congress facilitated the passage of several key policies, but the 2018 midterm elections shifted power dynamics, complicating future legislative efforts[27][28]. Market Impact - Trump's election is expected to have short-term effects on asset prices, with potential increases in tariffs negatively impacting export-oriented sectors and possibly leading to inflationary pressures[10][29]. - The anticipated expansion of fiscal policies may lead to increased volatility in asset prices, benefiting gold prices amid rising inflation risks[10][29]. Legislative Process Overview - The U.S. legislative process involves multiple steps, including committee approval and votes in both the House and Senate, with the possibility of executive orders bypassing Congress for specific policies[30][32]. - The Senate's filibuster rules require 60 votes to end debate on most legislation, complicating the passage of contentious bills, particularly in a divided Congress[24][34].