大国博弈深度研究系列四：美国大选之后：海外保守主义升温，国内政策有望发力

Trump's Policy and Economic Impact - Trump's 2024 policy emphasizes "America First," with direct tax cuts, reduced government spending, and increased oil production[1] - Proposed tariffs include a 10% global baseline tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, potentially raising the average tariff on China from 19.3% to 50%[1] - Tariff increases could lead to a 0.4%-1.2% rise in U.S. inflation and increase household annual expenses by $1,700 to $3,900[1] - Trump's policies are expected to drive U.S. economic growth and reflation, benefiting U.S. stocks and gold in the medium term[1][24] Impact on U.S. and Global Markets - Short-term market reaction post-election: U.S. stocks and the dollar rise, while long-term bonds, gold, and crude oil fall[24] - Medium-term outlook: U.S. stocks and gold are favored, with long-term bond yields expected to rise due to fiscal expansion and reflation risks[25] - Crude oil prices face downward pressure due to global demand slowdown and increased U.S. production[24] China-U.S. Trade and Strategic Competition - Trump's China policy includes tariffs, technology transfer restrictions, and export controls to reduce dependency on China[1][21] - Potential cancellation of China's Most Favored Nation status could significantly impact labor-intensive and U.S.-dependent export sectors[21][35] - Domestic policies in China may focus on boosting internal demand and technology self-reliance to counter external pressures[35] A-Share Market Implications - A-shares may benefit from domestic demand policies and technology self-sufficiency, particularly in sectors like construction, environmental protection, electronics, and defense[35] - Export-dependent sectors may face challenges due to potential tariff increases, but non-U.S. export chains could benefit from currency depreciation[35] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include policy misinterpretation, historical experience failure, statistical data bias, geopolitical changes, and unexpected Fed policy shifts[2] - Trump's trade and tech policies could accelerate, leading to increased market volatility and economic uncertainty[2]