全球经济2025系列一：大选三问三答

Group 1: Macro Events - The preliminary results of the U.S. election on November 6 show a significant victory for Trump, controlling the presidency and both houses of Congress[1] - The political power in the U.S. is rapidly shifting towards the Republican Party, indicating a transition to "strongman politics" and a restructuring of the global political economy[2] Group 2: Political Perspective - The 2024 election reflects a correction of neoliberal ideology, with a focus on nationalism to address wealth disparity and social conflicts[3] - The Republican Party's control over grassroots organizations has significantly increased, leading to a concentration of power and a shift from "checks and balances" to "consolidated power" in governance[4] Group 3: Economic Perspective - The U.S. is expected to implement "internal tax cuts" and "external taxation" to balance its finances, with potential tariffs of 10% on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods[5] - Global inflationary pressures are anticipated to rise, driven by trade wars and supply chain disruptions, impacting both domestic and international economic activities[6] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Short-term economic data volatility and rapid price increases in upstream sectors pose significant risks[7] - The global financial competition is expected to intensify, with the U.S. dollar index likely to rise, putting pressure on non-U.S. assets[8]