美国大选点评报告：特朗普重回白宫对中国市场和大类资产的影响

Election Outcome and Political Landscape - Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Democratic candidate Harris, leading to a Republican majority in the Senate and potential control of the House[1] - The shift in voter demographics, particularly among Latino and Black male voters, contributed to Trump's victory, influenced by high inflation during the Democratic administration[1] Economic Policies and Projections - Trump's fiscal policies may lead to a projected federal deficit of 9.6% by FY 2035, excluding impacts from war, pandemic, and recession[1] - Proposed policies include reducing corporate tax rates to 15% for domestic production, extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and increasing tariffs on Chinese imports by 60%[1] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - On November 6, 30-year Treasury futures fell by 0.06%, while 10-year Treasury futures remained stable; the Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.09%[1] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant decline of 2.23%, and the onshore USD/CNY exchange rate depreciated to approximately 7.16, with a volatility of 554 basis points[1] Global Market Implications - Trump's election is expected to tighten supply-side effects, benefiting U.S. stock markets due to lower corporate taxes and growth policies, particularly for small-cap and cyclical sectors[1] - Increased fiscal deficits and high tariffs may lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, while oil prices are anticipated to drop due to relaxed domestic energy regulations[1] Impact on A-shares and Hong Kong Market - A potential slowdown in Fed rate cuts could lead to capital outflows from A-shares, negatively affecting technology and consumer sectors[1] - Hong Kong stocks, heavily reliant on foreign capital, may face liquidity and valuation pressures, particularly in technology and finance sectors[1]