GreatStar(SZ:002444) Caixin Securities·2024-11-07 05:48Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [9]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 28.73% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 11.084 billion yuan, and a net profit of 1.935 billion yuan, up 28.50% year-on-year [4]. - The North American hand tools market is expected to recover, driven by a potential rebound in the real estate sector due to lower loan rates following interest rate cuts [4]. - The company is shifting production capacity to Southeast Asia, aiming to cover the North American market entirely, with 75% of its exports to the U.S. coming from Southeast Asia [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 13.403 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.62%, and net profit expected to reach 2.167 billion yuan, reflecting a 28.07% increase [6]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 32.39% and 17.85%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [5]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, with revenues projected at 16.457 billion yuan and 19.637 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][7]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 1.80 yuan in 2024 to 2.68 yuan in 2026 [6]. - The projected price range for the company's stock is between 36.00 and 41.40 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20-23 times [6]. - The report highlights a consistent improvement in profitability metrics, with a projected return on equity (ROE) increasing from 11.39% in 2023 to 14.61% in 2026 [7].