有色行业周报：缅甸动乱的影响或将持续，关注美国大选

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4][11][13]. Core Views - Short-term bullish factors for gold have been over-traded, leading to significant downward pressure on gold prices. The market anticipates a Federal Reserve rate cut in November and December, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [4][11][13]. - Industrial metals require attention to policy-driven demand and economic performance. The report highlights fluctuations in copper and aluminum production rates, indicating mixed performance in the industrial metals sector [12][24][25]. - The ongoing unrest in Myanmar raises supply concerns for rare earth elements, with prices for certain rare earth oxides showing slight increases. The report suggests that prolonged disruptions could benefit rare earth prices [12][34][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - Gold prices are under pressure due to over-trading of bullish factors, with a current price of 2745.9 USD/oz, down 0.54% from the previous week. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both November and December [11][21][24]. - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are influenced by domestic policies and economic performance, with copper production rates at 74.12% and aluminum at 50.4% [12][25]. - Rare earth prices have seen slight increases due to supply concerns from Myanmar, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide up by 0.24% [12][34][35]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.64% this week, ranking 7th among 31 sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 13.04% [15][17]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with magnetic materials up 18.48% and aluminum down 1.76% [15][17]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices reported at 2745.9 USD/oz and 32.575 USD/oz, respectively, with significant changes in non-commercial net long positions [21][24]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - LME copper and aluminum prices decreased by 0.26% and 2.51%, respectively, while SHFE copper and aluminum prices increased slightly [24][25][26]. 3.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.82%, while nickel prices remained stable [30][31]. 3.4 Minor Metals and New Materials - Rare earth prices have increased slightly, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices up by 0.24% [34][35].