石油化工行业周报：地缘冲突有所降温，油价小幅回落

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [5][37]. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have slightly declined, with Brent crude settling at approximately $73.1 per barrel, down about 3.88% week-on-week, and WTI crude at approximately $69.49 per barrel, down about 3.2% week-on-week [12][14]. - Despite the decline in oil prices, the focus remains on high price levels benefiting upstream oil and gas companies, with U.S. crude production expected to grow in the next two years [16][2]. - The oil service sector shows a stable number of active drilling rigs in North America, while globally, the number of drilling platforms has increased, indicating positive business expansion opportunities for oil service companies [17][2]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved margins, particularly in Singapore, with diesel and gasoline price spreads increasing, suggesting a recovery in refining company performance [19][2]. - Polyester terminal prices indicate a potential recovery for long filament enterprises, with inventory levels decreasing and price spreads showing signs of improvement [22][2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 1.66% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.82 percentage points [9][1]. - Key stocks that led the gains included International Industry, Baoli International, and Hongtian Co., while stocks like Bohui Co. and Yuxin Co. faced declines [11][1]. Upstream Oil & Gas Sector - The EIA forecasts U.S. crude production to reach 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, maintaining a growth trend [16][2]. - The report suggests focusing on major state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for investment opportunities [3][2]. Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America remained stable week-on-week but showed a significant year-on-year decline [17][2]. - Global drilling platform activity has increased, which is favorable for oil service companies [17][2]. Midstream Refining Sector - The Singapore diesel price spread increased by approximately $5.6 per barrel, indicating a strong performance in refining margins [19][2]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3][2]. Terminal Polyester Sector - The POY price spread is approximately 1425 RMB per ton, with overall inventory levels decreasing, suggesting a recovery potential for long filament companies [22][2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. for investment [3][2]. C3 Sector - The acrylic acid market price is approximately 6625 RMB per ton, with a price spread against propane of about 2131 RMB per ton [28][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes: state-owned enterprises focusing on oil and gas reserves, growth in global upstream capital expenditure benefiting oil service companies, improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the long filament industry, and refining companies planning new capacities [3][32].