TNMG(000630) 国开证券·2024-11-07 06:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 106.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.73 billion yuan, up 5.97% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 34.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.96%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.29%. The net profit for the same period was 549 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.92% but a significant quarter-on-quarter drop of 49.42% [1]. - The decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 is attributed to falling electrolytic copper prices, which compressed revenue and gross profit margins, with a gross margin of 5.61%, down 7.41 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 150.09 billion yuan, 159.22 billion yuan, and 159.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 4.73 billion yuan, 4.83 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [1][3]. Financial Summary - The average price of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai non-ferrous market for the first three quarters of 2024 was 69,200 yuan, 79,300 yuan, and 75,200 yuan per ton, with year-on-year increases of 1.17%, 17.48%, and 8.99% respectively [1]. - The average spot refining charges (TC) for copper smelters were 65.08, 54.66, and 48.58 USD per thousand tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.99%, 16.01%, and 11.12% [1]. - The company’s copper foil production capacity reached 55,000 tons by the end of June 2024, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity to 80,000 tons annually, improving the business structure [1]. - The company anticipates an annual output of approximately 250,000 tons of copper metal from the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project, expected to be completed by June 2025, which will further increase raw material self-sufficiency [1]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.19, 8.95, and 8.72 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [1][3].