Huachuang Securities·2024-11-07 06:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua (601088) with a target price of 47.40 CNY, compared to the current price of 40.33 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 253.9 billion CNY for Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.57%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.55% year-on-year to 46.07 billion CNY [1][2]. - The coal production and sales remained stable, while electricity generation saw significant growth, with a 14.40% increase in power generation and a 14.86% increase in electricity sales year-on-year [2]. - The company’s long-term contract sales slightly decreased, but the main business capacity continues to improve, with new power generation capacity coming online [2]. - The bottom support for thermal coal prices has been validated, contributing to the company's stable profitability. The report highlights a dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on a 75% payout ratio [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 61.01 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 13x for 2024-2026 [3][7]. - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 343.07 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to decrease by 14.3% to 59.69 billion CNY [3][7]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 630.13 billion CNY in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.10% [4][7].