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华润建材科技:期待华南市场24Q4价格弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huarun Building Materials Technology (1313 HK) [7] Core Views - The report expects price elasticity in the South China market in Q4 2024, driven by seasonal factors and regional supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The Greater Bay Area construction provides medium-term growth momentum for the South China cement market [5] - The company's strategic shift from market share to collaboration has had an immediate positive impact on regional prices [5] - The company's aggressive expansion into aggregates is entering a harvest period, providing a new growth curve [5] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 16 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, and net profit of 310 million yuan, down 52% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net profit was 140 million yuan, up 77% YoY [3] - Cement and clinker sales volume was 43 86 million tons, down 7% YoY [4] - Ready-mixed concrete sales volume was 8 29 million cubic meters, up 33% YoY [4] - Aggregates sales volume was 46 28 million tons, up 71% YoY [4] Market Dynamics - National cement production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1 327 billion tons, down 10 7% YoY [3] - New housing construction starts in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 22 2% YoY [3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 4 1% in the first three quarters of 2024, lower than the 5 9% growth in 2023 [3] - Cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta region have increased by approximately 100 yuan/ton since October 2024 [4] Company Strategy - The company shifted its pricing strategy from market share to collaboration in Q2 2024, leading to significant price elasticity [5] - The company is well-positioned as a regional leader with scale and location advantages [5] - The company's aggregates business is becoming a significant contributor to growth [5] Industry Outlook - Fiscal policy adjustments and increased liquidity injection by the central bank in October 2024 are expected to benefit the cement sector [5] - Debt resolution efforts may reduce interest expenses and open up mid-term leverage space, potentially improving infrastructure demand [5] - Industry supply-side changes, including overcapacity management and carbon trading, may lead to cost increases for small enterprises and strengthen collaboration [5] Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 660 million yuan and 1 16 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x and 11x [5]