LI AUTO(02015) 海通证券·2024-11-07 06:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [6][7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.8 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 156% [6][7]. - The company expects Q4 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 21.4% to 29.0% [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 153,000 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41% [7]. - The average revenue per vehicle in Q3 2024 was approximately 270,000 yuan, which is a decrease of 49,000 yuan year-on-year and 9,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points but an increase of 2.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1 percentage points [8]. - The selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio was 7.8%, while the R&D expense ratio was 6.0% for Q3 2024 [8]. Sales and Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts sales of new vehicles to be 510,000, 710,000, and 850,000 units for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for the same years are 146 billion yuan, 206.4 billion yuan, and 250.2 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.3, 0.9, and 0.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The reasonable value range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 105.56 and 113.10 HKD based on a PS ratio of 1.4 to 1.5 for 2024 [5].