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拼多多：笼罩TEMU的关税问题短期难以消解
PDDPDD(PDD) 海通国际·2024-11-07 06:22

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Pinduoduo (PDD US) to a Neutral rating, with a current price of US122.15andatargetpriceofUS122.15 and a target price of US130.00 [1][5] Core Views - Pinduoduo's domestic business remains robust, with Q3 2024 revenue expected to exceed Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.8%, reaching RMB 104.4 billion, driven by a 51.6% YoY growth [7] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 is projected at RMB 31.3 billion, 7.2% above consensus, with a net profit margin of 30% [7] - Despite strong performance, mid-to-long-term stock price pressure is expected due to unresolved geopolitical risks, particularly US tariff policies affecting TEMU [7][18] - The report assigns a 25% discount to TEMU's valuation, reflecting market concerns over potential tariff impacts, leading to a revised target price of US130[18]FinancialPerformance−Revenuefor2024EisforecastedatRMB414.07billion,a67130 [18] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 414.07 billion, a 67% YoY increase, with net profit expected to grow 88% YoY to RMB 127.7 billion [4] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is projected to stabilize at 63.6% in 2024E, slightly up from 63.0% in 2023A [4] - ROE is expected to decline from 72.2% in 2023A to 50.8% in 2024E, reflecting higher equity base and operational challenges [4] - P/E ratio is estimated at 10x for 2024E, down from 19x in 2023A, indicating a more attractive valuation [4] Geopolitical Risks - Trump's potential tariff policies, including a 10% universal tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could severely impact TEMU's price competitiveness and profitability [11][12] - TEMU may face challenges in passing tariff costs to consumers or merchants, potentially eroding its price advantage and squeezing margins [12] - Biden's proposed reforms to the 1974 Trade Act, including adjustments to the 800 de minimis threshold, are unlikely to significantly affect TEMU [14][15] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pinduoduo's core platform business is valued at 12x 2024E PER, based on a projected GMV of RMB 4.9 trillion and operating profit of RMB 141.5 billion [18] - Despite a market cap of US$169.64 billion, representing a 10x 2024E valuation, the stock is considered one of the most cost-effective options in China's e-commerce sector [18] - Market sentiment remains fragile, with geopolitical risks overshadowing strong domestic performance, leading to a downgrade to Neutral [18]