Group 1: Export Performance - In October 2024, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year in USD terms, significantly up from 2.4% in September[1] - The cumulative export growth from January to October 2024 reached 5.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] - The strong export growth was driven by the easing of short-term disturbances, a low base from the previous year, and robust new trade dynamics, particularly in cross-border e-commerce which grew by 15.2% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Import Trends - October 2024 imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline from a 0.3% increase in September, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[4] - The cumulative import growth from January to October 2024 was negatively impacted by high base comparisons, with October's month-on-month import value showing a stronger performance than seasonal averages[5] - Key commodities like crude oil and iron ore saw significant year-on-year declines in import value, with crude oil imports dropping by 24.9% and iron ore by 14.5%[6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The export growth is expected to slow down to single digits in November 2024 due to a high base effect from the previous year and a potential slowdown in external demand[7] - The implementation of a series of incremental policies is anticipated to gradually improve import demand, with November imports expected to rebound to a growth rate of 2%-3%[8] - The potential impact of a new round of trade tensions with the U.S. could lead to a significant decline in export growth, estimated to drop by 6 to 8 percentage points if tariffs are increased[9]
2024年10月贸易数据解读：短期扰动因素消退、上年基数偏低等带动10月出口高增，高基数拖累进口增速转负
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2024-11-07 06:23