煤炭行业24Q3总结：Q3整体业绩有望触底，但分化明显，绩优则股优

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see a recovery in performance, with leading companies showing improved operational data in Q3 2024, indicating a potential bottoming out of quarterly performance [1][24]. - The overall revenue for coal mining companies in Q1-Q3 2024 was 911.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 118.9 billion yuan, down 20.9% [1][18]. - The average gross margin for sample coal companies in Q1-Q3 2024 was 28.7%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points compared to 2023 [1][20]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The coal price dynamics show a focus on price sustainability rather than elasticity, with the average spot price for Q5500 coal at ports being 870 yuan/ton from the beginning of 2024 to October 31 [7][8]. - The coal sector's performance has been mixed, with the coal index rising 8.18% year-to-date, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 5.23 percentage points [14]. Performance Overview - In Q3 2024, coal companies achieved a total revenue of 311.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% [1][18]. - The leading coal companies demonstrated significant cost control capabilities, with a notable improvement in profitability metrics compared to market expectations [1][24]. Operational Insights - Q3 2024 saw a recovery in production and sales volumes, with total coal production reaching 268 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1][24]. - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2024 was 714 yuan/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.44%, while the average cost was 433 yuan/ton, down 4.73% from the previous quarter [1][20]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a shift in investment focus from pure profit metrics to shareholder returns and free cash flow, suggesting a potential revaluation of cyclical stocks [1][24]. - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Jincheng Anthracite Mining, and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, among others, highlighting their strong performance and recovery potential [1][3].