白酒：主动减压，分化加大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, and an "Accumulate" rating for Jinshiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu [1][2]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing active adjustments during the off-season, leading to increased differentiation among companies. In the first three quarters of 2024, the white liquor sector's revenue grew by 10.47% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.26% [2][9]. - The industry has seen a "hot then cold" trend this year, with strong demand during the Spring Festival followed by a slowdown in overall sales. The Q3 revenue growth was only 2.34%, with net profit growth at 1.71% [2][9]. - High-end and leading regional brands are showing stable growth, while the mid-range segment continues to face pressure. High-end liquor revenue grew by 13.46% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while mid-range liquor saw a decline of 0.38% in Q3 [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of White Liquor Performance - The white liquor sector's revenue and profit growth are relatively strong compared to other food and beverage sub-sectors, ranking second in revenue growth and third in profit growth for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][10]. - The sector's performance reflects resilience, with Q3 showing a significant impact from high base effects from the previous year [2][10]. 2. Fund Allocation and Valuation - The fund allocation to the white liquor sector has slightly increased, maintaining an overweight status. The fund's heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are concentrated in top companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][10]. - The report suggests that the white liquor sector is currently at a relatively low valuation, indicating potential for future growth [4][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with high earnings certainty and steadily increasing dividend rates, particularly Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. It also highlights companies like Jinshiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu as having strong market share growth potential [4][10][22].