啤酒：2024韧性仍在，2025依然是攻守兼备主线

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain" for the beer sector, with a recommendation to "Increase Holdings" for key companies such as Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the beer industry is expected to maintain steady growth through 2025, supported by financial and fiscal policies that will positively impact consumption in dining and distribution channels [2][5]. - Despite a challenging third quarter in 2024, where revenue and profit saw slight declines, the overall performance for the year is anticipated to show resilience due to cost elasticity and a favorable market environment [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the differentiation among companies, with national leaders like Qingdao Beer facing more pressure compared to regional leaders like Yanjing and Zhujiang, which are showing stronger performance [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Trends - In Q3 2024, the beer sector's revenue was 201.01 billion yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 26.33 billion yuan, down 3.05% [3][11]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 605.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 84.57 billion yuan, an increase of 6.70% [11][19]. 2. Cost and Margin Analysis - The report indicates that cost elasticity has continued, with gross profit margins showing a steady increase despite increased expenditure in Q3 2024 [4][19]. - The gross profit margin for Qingdao Beer in Q3 2024 was 42.12%, reflecting a 1.19 percentage point increase year-on-year [18]. 3. Company Performance Overview - Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer showed varied performance, with Qingdao Beer experiencing a sales volume decline of 5.11% in Q3 2024, while Zhujiang Beer saw an increase of 4.75% [15][19]. - The report notes that Qingdao Beer’s market value accounted for only 0.04% of the food and beverage sector in Q3 2024, indicating a low allocation in investment portfolios [5][19]. 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2024 will demonstrate performance resilience, with expectations for steady growth in 2025 driven by improved consumer spending and cost management [5][17]. - The focus on dividend yield and stable returns is highlighted as a defensive strategy for investors in the beer sector [5][19].