HWPC(SH:688799) Great Wall Securities·2024-11-07 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Warner Pharmaceuticals, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with revenue and profit growth below expectations due to industry challenges. However, the pace of R&D output remains stable, and self-developed innovative drugs are progressing steadily. As hospital demand recovers, performance growth is expected to return to normal [4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.09%. In Q3 2024, revenue was 331 million yuan, down 1.19% year-on-year, and net profit was 46 million yuan, down 0.97% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2022A: 1,293, 2023A: 1,433, 2024E: 1,527, 2025E: 1,709, 2026E: 1,873 [1][5]. - Net profit (million yuan): 2022A: 183, 2023A: 211, 2024E: 221, 2025E: 248, 2026E: 279 [1][5]. - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 62.34%, a decrease of 2.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.03%, down 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - R&D expenses increased by 2.24 percentage points year-on-year to 9.40% of total expenses in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. R&D Progress - The company is advancing multiple innovative drug projects, including ZG-001, which has completed Phase 1 clinical trials and is intended for treating major depressive disorders. The drug has shown excellent safety and pharmacokinetic properties [3].