建筑行业2024年三季报总结：业绩持续承压，看好化债带来建筑央国企的反转机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction and decoration industry [2] Core Views - Infrastructure investment accelerated in Q3 2024, with high growth in water conservancy and power sectors [2] - New contracts for the construction industry declined by 4.74% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, while backlog orders grew by 1.81% [2] - Listed construction companies' revenue and net profit declined by 5.0% and 11.8% YoY respectively in Q1-3 2024 [2] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) showed more resilience compared to local SOEs and private enterprises [2] Industry Data Overview - Total infrastructure investment (full-caliber) reached 17.70 trillion yuan in Q1-3 2024, up 9.26% YoY [2] - Water conservancy management and power supply sectors saw investment growth of 37.10% and 24.80% respectively [2] - Construction industry's total output value grew by 4.40% YoY to 21.74 trillion yuan in Q1-3 2024 [2] Listed Companies' Performance - 68 listed construction companies reported new contracts of 11.72 trillion yuan in Q1-3 2024, down 3.2% YoY [2] - Central SOEs, local SOEs, and private enterprises saw new contract declines of 2.5%, 9.0%, and 12.3% respectively [2] - China State Construction, China Railway Group, and China Communications Construction were among the top performers in new contracts [2] Financial Performance - Listed construction companies' gross margin improved slightly to 10.06% in Q1-3 2024, up 0.05 percentage points YoY [2] - Net profit margin declined to 2.75%, down 0.18 percentage points YoY [2] - Operating cash flow improved significantly in Q3 2024, though still negative at -499.99 billion yuan for Q1-3 [2] Investment Strategy - Focus on central SOEs benefiting from debt resolution and state-owned enterprise reforms [2] - Pay attention to companies with rapid overseas business growth and high dividends [2] - Consider private enterprises in emerging productivity sectors, especially in steel structure manufacturing [2] Key Companies - Major construction SOEs like China Railway Group, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction are recommended [1] - Companies with strong overseas business such as Sinoma International and China National Chemical Engineering are highlighted [2] - Private enterprises like Honglu Steel Structure are noted for their advantages in intelligent transformation [2]