【浙商宏观||李超】特朗普归来影响几何?

Group 1: Election Outcome and Political Landscape - Trump has secured over 270 electoral votes, confirming his victory in the current election cycle[1] - The Republican Party is likely to control the Senate, with the House of Representatives still undecided but leaning towards a Republican majority[1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Trump's policies of tax cuts, increased tariffs, immigration restrictions, and relaxed financial regulations may raise inflation and interest rate expectations[1] - The potential for increased trade barriers against China could lead to significant external demand pressures, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical fiscal policies[1] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Deficit Concerns - Trump's fiscal policies may lead to a widening deficit, as tax cuts are not matched by spending reductions, particularly in healthcare and social security[2] - The permanent tax cuts could raise the long-term deficit rate by approximately 1%, increasing the government's leverage ratio by over 10%[3] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Trump may pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while relaxing financial regulations, which could undermine the Fed's independence and elevate inflation expectations[4] - The combination of tax cuts and tariffs is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures, with a projected CPI increase of about 1.2% in the first year of Trump's policies[5] Group 5: Labor Market and Immigration - Trump's immigration policies could tighten the labor market, potentially reducing the annual influx of new labor by 1.26 million and exacerbating wage growth and inflation pressures[5] - The anticipated reduction in low-skilled labor could create significant employment gaps in the domestic service sector[5] Group 6: Trade Policy and Economic Growth - Trump's trade policy includes a 10% tariff on all imports and targeted 60% tariffs, which could lower long-term GDP growth by approximately 0.8%[5] - The overall economic impact of these tariffs is expected to slow GDP growth by 0.7% to 1.1% over the long term[5] Group 7: Domestic Policy Responses - In response to potential trade barriers, China may enhance fiscal measures, including increasing the deficit rate and issuing special bonds[6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand may include issuing consumption vouchers and direct subsidies to low-income groups[7] Group 8: Global Asset Market Reactions - A Trump victory could lead to higher 10-year U.S. Treasury yields due to increased inflation and interest rate expectations[8] - The stock market may benefit from Trump's tax cuts and deregulation, while the dollar may strengthen amid inflationary pressures[8]