海外观察：美国大选点评-特朗普二次入驻白宫的影响

Group 1: Election Impact - Trump has won 277 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed for victory in the 2024 presidential election[2] - The Republican Party is likely to secure a majority in both the Senate and House, easing policy implementation during Trump's term[3] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's policies may maintain U.S. economic resilience but could lead to increased inflation and fiscal pressures[4] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to widen due to reduced tax revenues from tax cuts, despite potential increases in tariff revenues[4] Group 3: China’s Response - China's export share to the U.S. has decreased from 19% in 2018 to 15% in 2023, indicating a need for increased domestic demand policies[4] - The importance of expanding domestic demand in China is expected to rise in response to external demand pressures[4] Group 4: Asset Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets may initially rise due to tax cut expectations but could face volatility as economic resilience wanes[5] - U.S. Treasury yields may remain elevated due to fiscal deficit concerns and inflation expectations[5]