白酒行业更新：预期扭转，内需提振

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the liquor manufacturing industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a turnaround in domestic demand is rising, with the liquor sector showing significant elasticity as a typical cyclical industry. The current phase of performance adjustment in the liquor sector is anticipated to be supported by strong recovery expectations, potentially leading stock prices to improve ahead of fundamental recovery [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry is currently in a performance adjustment phase due to inventory cycles, but the micro trading structure has improved following a reduction in holdings. The valuation of the liquor sector is around the historical 20% percentile, suggesting that strong recovery expectations may support valuations moving forward [3][6]. Summary by Sections Short-term Investment Suggestions - In the short term, the report recommends focusing on stocks with demand recovery elasticity, suggesting to overweight: Shui Jing Fang, Jiu Gui Jiu, She De Jiu Ye, Hong Kong stock Zhen Jiu Li Du, and liquor chain Hua Zhi Jiu Hang [3]. Mid-term Investment Focus - For the mid-term, the report highlights the importance of performance and market share logic, recommending to overweight: Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Kweichow Moutai [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that recent domestic fiscal policies are positive, and expectations for recovery in domestic consumption and stabilization in the real estate sector are increasing. The liquor sector, being a high-end consumption category, is expected to exhibit significant demand recovery elasticity [3]. Industry Trends - The report indicates that from October 2024 onwards, the industry is focused on stabilizing prices and managing inventory. Leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have initiated measures to control supply to mitigate external shocks [3]. Performance Metrics - The report provides performance metrics indicating that the liquor sector is currently experiencing a performance adjustment phase, with expectations for recovery in 2025. The focus will shift from price logic to market share logic, with leading companies expected to adjust product structures and pricing strategies to adapt to external demand environments [3]. Valuation Insights - The report highlights that the Shenyin Wanguo liquor index is currently at a valuation level that is historically low, suggesting potential for future price appreciation as recovery expectations materialize [6].