中国中铁：现金流有所改善，新兴业务增长强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China Railway [3][7] Core Views - The company has seen a slight decline in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2024, but the overall fundamentals are expected to improve throughout the year [4][5] - The company has a sufficient backlog of orders, with a total order book of 63,252.6 billion yuan, which is 5 times the revenue of 2023, indicating strong future revenue potential [5] - Cash flow has improved in the third quarter, and there are expectations for continued improvement in the fourth quarter [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 8,202.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.26% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 205.70 billion yuan, down 14.33% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 8.80%, a decline of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.74%, down 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 30,105 million yuan, 31,318 million yuan, and 32,572 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.22 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.32 yuan [7][8]