轮胎行业专题报告（2024年10月）：海外需求稳定国内有所回落，原料价格及海运费回落

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the tire industry Core Insights - The overseas demand for tires remains stable while domestic demand has shown a decline, with raw material prices and shipping costs decreasing [2][3] - In the U.S. market, retail sales of automotive parts and tire shops remain at historically high levels, with September 2024 retail sales amounting to $11.458 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 7.30% but a year-on-year increase of 1.21% [2] - In China, the production of semi-steel tires continues at a high operating rate, while the operating rate for all-steel tires has decreased [2][3] Raw Materials - The tire raw material price index in October averaged 187.97, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.93% and a year-on-year increase of 8.60% [8][10] - The average price of natural rubber in October was 17,356 yuan/ton, up 8.09% month-on-month and 30.57% year-on-year [10] - The average price of carbon black was 8,230 yuan/ton, down 4.03% month-on-month and down 19.80% year-on-year [10] Production and Export - In October 2024, the average operating rate for all-steel tires in China was 51.94%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.21 percentage points, while the semi-steel tire operating rate was 78.42%, a year-on-year increase of 6.54 percentage points [13] - In September 2024, China exported 54.27 million new inflatable rubber tires, a month-on-month decrease of 12.27% but a year-on-year increase of 5.38% [13][18] Consumption - The replacement market shows more resilience compared to the original equipment market, with stable demand in the U.S. [22] - Global tire replacement market growth in September 2024 was +4%, while the original equipment market saw a decline of -3% [22] Shipping - Shipping costs continued to decline, with the Baltic global container freight index averaging 3,521.60 points in October, down 27.19% month-on-month but up 227.20% year-on-year [2][3] Key Companies - Sailun Tire reported total revenue of 8.474 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.82% [2][3]