金属及金属新材料行业11月策略：金铜价格有望继续上行

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - Base metals are expected to continue rising as uncertainties decrease, with a focus on the impact of U.S. elections and domestic policy [15][17] - Steel mills are seeing a recovery in profitability, with attention on the effectiveness of macro policies in November [17] - Precious metals are anticipated to reach new highs due to a combination of safe-haven demand and financial attributes [18] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are expected to face downward price pressure despite some resilience in demand [19] - Small metals like tungsten and molybdenum are projected to stabilize, with attention on supply conditions in Myanmar affecting rare earths [20] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals - Prices are expected to rise due to improved domestic demand and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. As of October 31, copper social inventory in China was 267,900 tons, down 8,400 tons from the previous week, indicating tight supply [15][16] - Aluminum supply remains tight with social inventory at 597,000 tons, down 33,000 tons from the previous month, supporting price increases [16] - Zinc and lead markets are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply and improving demand [16] 2. Steel - Steel mill profitability has improved, with a reported increase of 42.44 percentage points to 61.06% in October. However, low profitability may continue to constrain supply [17] - The price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 17.59% to 17,800 tons, while the price of iron ore increased by 2.73% to 770.50 yuan per ton [17] 3. Precious Metals - The U.S. core PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in September, and the unemployment rate was 4.1% in October, aligning with expectations. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November, which, along with geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to drive gold prices higher [18] 4. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to anticipated oversupply, despite a slight increase in demand [19] 5. Small Metals - The price of tungsten increased by 2.74% to 140,600 yuan per ton in October, while molybdenum prices rose by 1.90% to 3,745 yuan per ton. The situation in Myanmar regarding rare earth supply is being closely monitored [20]