煤炭行业周报（2024年第43期）：Q3煤企业绩总体稳健，静待旺季来临电煤需求改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry performance in Q3 was generally stable, with expectations for improved electricity coal demand as the peak season approaches [2][40] - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight decline in port thermal coal prices, while the coking coal market remains weak and stable. The CCI5500 thermal coal price index decreased by 3 RMB/ton to 855 RMB/ton [2][8] - The report highlights that while coal prices have generally declined in Q2 and Q3, profit margins remain relatively stable, with most companies exceeding performance expectations in their Q3 reports [2] Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices at ports have slightly decreased, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price at 855 RMB/ton as of November 1, 2024, down 3 RMB/ton week-on-week. The annual long-term contract price for November is 699 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [2][8] - Domestic port coal prices have slightly declined, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. However, some high-calorific coal prices in Shanxi and Shaanxi regions have increased due to temporary production halts [2][8] - The report notes that the overall coal inventory is sufficient, and with the arrival of winter storage demand, coal prices are expected to rebound gradually [2][8] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain stable or slightly increase due to rising winter storage demand and limited supply growth. The macroeconomic outlook is improving, which is expected to support coal prices [2][40] - The average dividend yield for the industry is projected to exceed 5% as of November 1, 2024, indicating significant valuation and dividend advantages for the sector [2] Key Companies - Key companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [3] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include Yancoal Energy and China Coal Energy [3] - Companies expected to benefit from improved demand and production recovery include Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [3]