运动鞋服行业2024年三季报总结：品牌行业虽承压仍具韧性，代工行业持续景气

Industry Rating - The industry rating is Buy, maintaining the previous rating of Buy [1] Core Views - The sportswear and footwear downstream brand retail industry faced pressure in Q3 2024 but remained resilient, with domestic leading brands maintaining healthy and controllable inventory levels [2] - The upstream sportswear and footwear manufacturing industry continued to grow in Q1-Q3 2024, with some companies showing performance divergence in Q3 [3] Downstream Brand Retail Industry - In Q3 2024, Anta's main brand saw mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while FILA experienced low-single-digit decline [2] - Li Ning's main brand saw a mid-single-digit decline, while Xtep achieved mid-single-digit growth [2] - 361 Degrees' main brand offline sales grew by approximately 10%, and its children's line also grew by 10% [2] - Pou Sheng International's net operating income decreased by 10.8% year-on-year, and China Dongxiang's sales declined by high-single digits [2] - Overall, the sportswear brand retail industry saw a slowdown in Q3, primarily due to reduced foot traffic, but inventory levels remained healthy [2] Upstream Manufacturing Industry - In Q1-Q3 2024, the sportswear manufacturing industry achieved revenue of 67.07 billion yuan, a 10.6% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 4.25 billion yuan, a 20.4% year-on-year increase [3] - In Q3 2024, the manufacturing industry (excluding Shenzhou International) achieved revenue of 23.55 billion yuan, a 14.0% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, a 5.1% year-on-year increase [3] - Companies like Huali Group and Zhiqiang International saw growth in revenue and net profit, while Fengtai Enterprise and Yueqi International experienced declines [3] Investment Recommendations - For the downstream brand retail industry, focus on leading companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are expected to maintain high industry prosperity and healthy inventory levels [3] - For the upstream manufacturing industry, despite uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, leading companies like Huali Group and Shenzhou International are expected to maintain steady growth due to their strong competitiveness and global capacity layout [3] Market Performance - In Q3 2024, the sportswear brand retail sector slightly outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with the sector rising 19.9% compared to the Hang Seng's 19.3% [10] - The sector's performance was driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic and consumption growth, which boosted investor confidence [10]