房地产行业2024年9月公司月报：市场销售低位，“止跌回稳”促进估值修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate industry as of November 3, 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downward trend in sales, with state-owned enterprises showing relative stability compared to private firms. In September 2024, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 273.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.1%, with the decline expanding by 10.3 percentage points month-on-month [10][23]. - The market is expected to stabilize due to government policies aimed at preventing further declines, which may catalyze improvements in market fundamentals and corporate valuations [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Performance - The sales performance of real estate companies is under pressure, with state-owned enterprises performing better than private firms. In September 2024, the sales amount for key listed companies was 181.4 billion yuan, down 40.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 12.1 percentage points [10][23]. - The new opening absorption rate in key cities fell to a historical low of 38% in September 2024, indicating increased difficulty for companies in selling their inventory [12]. 2. Land Acquisition - There was a marginal improvement in land acquisition, with 44 sample companies acquiring land worth 32.6 billion yuan in September 2024, a month-on-month increase of 257% [2]. - The average gross profit margin for land acquisition among 12 major companies was 29%, reflecting an 8 percentage point increase month-on-month [2]. 3. Financing - Overall financing for real estate companies reached 150.4 billion yuan in September 2024, a month-on-month increase of 5% but a year-on-year decrease of 11% [2]. - The average financing cost for domestic bonds was 2.91%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44 basis points [2]. 4. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report notes a divergence in performance among real estate companies, with overall sector valuations recovering. The report suggests focusing on the continued recovery of fundamental performance and the valuation repair of key real estate companies [2][10]. 5. Price Trends - The average selling price for tracked companies in September 2024 was 17,417 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [16]. - The average selling price for the top 100 companies was 17,914 yuan per square meter, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [16]. 6. Company Recommendations - The report includes a list of recommended stocks within the real estate sector, all rated as "Buy," indicating a positive outlook for these companies [5].