啤酒饮料行业2024年三季报总结：需求普遍承压，把握高景气标的

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beer and beverage industry is "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The beer market is experiencing a further decline in demand, awaiting improvement. The overall industry review indicates a sequential weakening with low demand, as the beer production in Q3 2024 decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, consistent with the decline in Q2 2024. The revenue and sales volume of major A-share beer companies also saw a decline in Q3 2024, with revenue down by 3.3% and sales volume down by 3.0% year-on-year [1][7][11]. - The beverage sector is under pressure, with only Dongpeng Beverage showing significant growth. The overall revenue of beverage companies declined in Q3 2024, but Dongpeng maintained rapid growth. The industry is facing cost pressures, leading to increased sales expenses, which in turn suppresses the transmission of cost benefits to net profits [1][7][11]. Summary by Sections Beer: Market Demand Further Declines, Awaiting Improvement - Industry Overview: The beer production in Q3 2024 was 10.214 million kiloliters, down 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting a sequential decline in demand [7][11]. - Volume and Price: Sales volume and price per ton are under pressure. The main factors affecting beer consumption include weak dining demand and increased rainfall. Only Zhujiang and Yanjing achieved positive sales growth in Q3 2024, while Qingdao, Chongqing, and Budweiser faced declines [1][22]. - Cost & Expenses: There is still a margin for profit, but the elasticity of gross profit margins is shrinking. The price of barley continues to decline, while aluminum prices are rising, impacting the gross margin expansion of beer companies [1][7]. Beverage: Industry Demand Under Pressure, Dongpeng Stands Out - The beverage sector's revenue generally declined in Q3 2024, with Dongpeng Beverage being the exception, showing significant growth. The industry continues to face cost pressures, leading to increased sales expenses, which suppresses the transmission of cost benefits to net profits [1][7]. Investment Recommendations: Seize Scarce High-Prosperity Targets - The report suggests focusing on scarce high-prosperity targets, as companies with strong fundamentals continue to perform well despite market uncertainties. Key recommendations include Yanjing Beer, Dongpeng Beverage, and Master Kong Holdings, with additional attention to Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, and China Resources Beer if consumer upgrades and cyclical reversals occur [1][7].