AHB(688639) 天风证券·2024-11-07 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% compared to the CSI 300 Index within the next 6 months [2][5][13] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by a significant decline in amino acid prices, particularly valine and inositol, leading to a 46.90% YoY drop in net profit [1] - Despite price declines, the company's revenue grew by 12.82% YoY, supported by increased sales volume of amino acid products and the launch of new products such as 1,3-propanediol, succinic acid, and malic acid [1][2] - The company's new projects, including a 50,000-ton bio-based succinic acid project and a 50,000-ton bio-based 1,3-propanediol project, are progressing well, with completion rates of 90% and 75% respectively [2] - The company has signed technology licensing agreements to expand its product portfolio, including agreements for arginine and tryptophan production technologies [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 5.23 billion, a 1.66% YoY increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 84.32% YoY to RMB 0.20 billion [1] - Gross margin in Q3 2024 declined by 19 percentage points YoY and 8.3 percentage points QoQ to 21.4% [1] - Valine prices fell 34% YoY and 8% QoQ to RMB 13,700/ton, while inositol prices dropped 67.2% YoY and 21% QoQ to RMB 46,900/ton [1] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts were revised downward to RMB 2.4 billion, RMB 4.8 billion, and RMB 5.5 billion, respectively [2] Project Progress - The 50,000-ton bio-based succinic acid project is 90% complete, the 50,000-ton bio-based 1,3-propanediol project is 75% complete, and the 50,000-ton bio-based malic acid project is 80% complete [2] - The alternating production project for 60,000 tons of branched-chain amino acids, tryptophan, and 10,000 tons of refined amino acids is 5% complete [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2024E P/E ratio is 36.49x, with a P/B ratio of 4.17x and a P/S ratio of 4.33x [4] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024E is 20.93x, expected to decline to 10.81x by 2026E [4] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 0.98, increasing to RMB 2.21 by 2026E [4] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the basic chemicals/chemical products industry, with a focus on expanding its synthetic biology platform [5] - The company's market capitalization is RMB 8.89 billion, with a circulating market value of RMB 8.13 billion [5] - The company's product portfolio diversification and technology licensing agreements are expected to enhance its industry position [2]